Starting September on a rocky note, Bitcoin’s (BTC) value took a downturn, now at roughly $25,580.81. This dip is directly linked to the SEC’s decision to hold off on their verdict for numerous spot Bitcoin ETF applications. This decision came hot on Grayscale’s celebrated win against the SEC, which had momentarily buoyed market optimism.
📉 $BTC has started September by falling to $25.4K, its lowest price level since June 16th. Traders have a growing concern that the #SEC may not be willing to approve a spot #Bitcoin #ETF, even after #Grayscale’s victory. Expect #FUD to dominate at least through the weekend. pic.twitter.com/0JK7j3YGYA
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) September 1, 2023
In the context of past performance, September hasn’t traditionally favored BTC. Will Clemente, a crypto analyst, emphasized that, since 2016, Bitcoin has faced mostly negative returns in this month. Specifically, while 2019 saw a sharp 13.47% drop, 2022 experienced a milder decline of 3.12%.
A Silver Lining for BTC?
Despite the initial setbacks this month, there’s a potential for BTC to shift its September narrative. Given its unpredictable nature, Bitcoin could break from the historical slump and register gains. However, the market’s fate hinges significantly on fundamental factors, urging traders to remain alert.
I know it «looks bad», but it looked bad at 15k too.
After our bearish weekly candle at 15k, we only drifted about 2.5% lower before finding our bottom.
Looks can be deceiving which is why you can’t base your bias off of how things «look».
A break in market structure at 24.8k… https://t.co/wQxpY4bkLN pic.twitter.com/szFYwcVEjA
— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) September 1, 2023
The SEC’s delayed decisions on ETFs have ruffled the market, and while some experts had braced for this outcome, the resultant drop was more pronounced than predicted. The Grayscale court victory had initially hinted at an open door for Bitcoin ETFs. Still, the subsequent postponements have injected uncertainty into the mix. Moreover, the SEC has another 45 days to finalize its stance, though another extension remains possible.
However, a beacon of hope looms with analysts pegging a 75% probability of the SEC approving a spot Bitcoin ETF within this year. This optimistic forecast gained traction, particularly after Grayscale’s court triumph, implying that the SEC might find it challenging to maintain its previous stance of denial.
The Bottom Line
As September progresses, the crypto community watches Bitcoin’s moves closely. With history painting a bleak September picture and recent events adding to the uncertainty, Bitcoin’s path remains unpredictable. As the SEC’s decision day approaches, the outcomes will significantly influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.