Steve’s theory about Bitcoin returns diminishing by 5.3x from bottom to top each cycle has been making waves in the cryptocurrency community. According to the theory reported by CryptoCon, the next cycle top will be around $77,000.
Have you heard of Steve’s 5.3 #Bitcoin Theory?This says that returns are diminishing by 5.3x from bottom to top each cycle.If this is true, the next cycle top will be about $77,000…I’ve done a ton of math, so you don’t have to! Let’s see if this is the real deal.… pic.twitter.com/fhd1CWfd3c
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) September 9, 2023
To find out, they measured returns from cycle bottoms to tops on the daily timeframe as precisely as possible. The returns from cycle tops to bottoms were not 5.3, but rather 5.34x, 4.96x, and 5.63x. However, the average of these numbers is 5.31, which adds merit to Steve’s theory.
Still, it only gives us a range. The real numbers so far from lowest to highest are as follows:
Cycle Top Price Lowest $73,522 Average $77,122 Highest $81,675
Unfortunately, none of these numbers are ones that people want to hear. To reach a slightly more optimistic target of $100,000, Bitcoin would need to set in a drastically lower diminishing return rate to reach that target this cycle, at 3.84x diminish.
Interestingly, Bitcoin has never not hit a Fibonacci extension level at a cycle top. If $77,000 is the target, this would break that. The cycles hit these Fibonacci extensions: 58.764, 19.764, and 3.618. The lowest Fibonacci extension for this cycle measured from weekly candle bodies is 1.618. This would mean a price of $104,000, which takes a 3.7x diminish from the last cycle.
Many believe that ETFs will bring the power it takes to break models and numbers. Despite the numbers, Bitcoin remains an exciting investment option, and it will be interesting to see how it performs in the future.
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