Bitcoin (BTC) has endured a bear market for nearly two years, leaving investors eagerly anticipating the next rally for the leading cryptocurrency. During this time, numerous analyses and theories have emerged, speculating on the timing of the next Bitcoin surge, even as external factors, such as regulatory uncertainty, continue to influence the asset.
One noteworthy theory comes from the crypto analyst CryptoCon, who shared their insights in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on September 7. CryptoCon’s theory draws from historical price movements to provide insights into what can be expected in the future.
The analyst’s theory revolves around the “November 28th Cycles Theory,” which he believes has been the key to understanding Bitcoin’s price behavior over the years. The theory projects BTC is likely to witness the start of a new bull run on November 28, 2024.
Tracking Bitcoin’s road to the next bull run
According to this theory, Bitcoin’s price movements are cyclic, with each cycle lasting approximately four years, and all of them centered around the date of the first Bitcoin halving event, which took place on November 28.
The crux of CryptoCon’s theory is that significant tops and bottoms in the digital asset’s price occur roughly +/- 21 days from the date of November 28, with tops marking the upward momentum and bottoms signifying the pinnacle of a bearish trend.
CryptoCon pointed out that Bitcoin’s price action began with its first bottom on October 8, 2010, and since then, the cycle curves have peaked every four years. After each bottom, Bitcoin experiences an early first-cycle move, followed by a prolonged mid-cycle lull where it hovers around the median price, approximately half of the previous all-time high (ATH). The next major bull run, according to the analyst, typically launches from the bottom of the curve.
“The thought that everyone is expecting 4-year cycles allows them to continue right on track. Things like price and exact timing maintain surprise. These times cycles continue to hold true to this day,” he stated.
Therefore, based on this theory, CryptoCon predicts that the next Bitcoin bull run will commence on November 28, 2024. The next top in Bitcoin’s price is expected to be around +/- 21 days from November 28, 2025, followed by the next bottom around the same time in 2026. The subsequent mid-cycle lull is forecasted for June 2027.
While CryptoCon’s theory provides an intriguing perspective on Bitcoin’s price movements, it’s important to note that cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and influenced by a multitude of factors, making predictions inherently risky.
Currently, the crypto market is looking at factors such as the possible approval of the spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) to trigger a price rally. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event is anticipated to partly contribute to the price rally.
Bitcoin price analysis
Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin has undergone minor gains in the last 24 hours, with gains of almost 2%, trading at $26,193 by press time. Over the past week, Bitcoin has gained less than 1%.
Despite the short-term gains, Bitcoin still trades below the $30,000 position, a crucial level for the next bull run.
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